US tecnological limitations?

The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) explains that conventional capabilities, while robust, may not have enough force to defeat a hardened and deeply buried target (HDBT). The Defense Department highlighted HDBTs as a forthcoming challenge to current U.S. capabilities in a report sent to congress in October 2001. It defined HDBTs as “an adversary’s threatening and well protected assets in structures ranging from hardened surface bunker complexes to deep tunnels.” Buildings and facilities that an adversary may construct underground could serve as leadership shelters, host command and control operations, or act as storage depots for weapons of mass destruction. According to the Pentagon report to congress, U.S. intelligence estimates over 10,000 HDBTs worldwide, and anticipates a significant increase in that number in the coming decade.

Conventional weapons can destroy some of these facilities. The July 2001 report notes, “Many of them can be held at risk by current or developmental weapons, if our weapons numbers are adequate, accurate target location coordinates are known, and defences overcome.” However, according to the NPR, “current conventional weapons can only ‘deny’ or ‘disrupt’ the functioning of HDBTs and require the highly accurate intelligence and precise weapon delivery with a degree of accuracy and precision frequently missing under actual combat conditions. … [C]urrent conventional weapons are not effective for the long term physical destruction of deep, underground facilities.” Although conventional weapons may be able to strike some HDBTs, sufficient depth and significant hardening of structures, using for example steel or concrete reinforcement, has led the Pentagon to seek more powerful methods of destroying these targets.

Because U.S. conventional capabilities may not be able to achieve the complete destruction of such targets, the report suggests further development of nuclear capabilities as the way forward. The B61, modification 11 (B61-11) gravity bomb is the only earth-penetrating nuclear weapon in the U.S. arsenal, but its limitations show the need for a more effective earth-penetrating weapon. According to the NPR, “many buried targets could be attacked using a weapon with a much lower yield than would be required with a surface burst weapon. This lower yield would achieve the same damage while producing less fallout.” To carry forward this mission, the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration has established advanced concept teams at the three U.S. nuclear weapon laboratories to begin further research into improved earth-penetrating weapons to defeat HDBTs.

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